First Light . . . SC Senate Seat 44

With the runoff election to determine the Republican candidate to run against John West to replace the late Senator Bill Mescher coming in just over one week, the political tones are buzzing in Berkeley County. Shirley Hinson, an 11 year veteran of the SC Statehouse, comes into the runoff with a 537 vote deficit to Paul Campbell - a man with no previous political experience of which I am aware. What is even more astonishing is for the veteran to have only out raised Campbell by about $9,000. ($32,000 to $23,000 respectively as of June 2 and reported by The Post and Courier on June 20) I don't consider either to have done poorly in their campaign fundraising in such a short time. Yet, I would have expected Hinson to have lengthened her lead over the other candidates. Furthermore, I am impressed that her financial advantage did not equal to an advantage in the voting booth.

So what is the message?

Hinson has to be surprised by the primary results. She garnered only 1307 votes, versus Campbell's 1844, from a district where she has served as a teacher, a School Board Representative, and a delegate to the State House of Representatives. But, to be honest. . . I wasn't that surprised at all. I believe that her political power base comes from her home district. The "Shotpolitics Blog" has reported that she actually lost her home district. That base obviously wasn't enough. Furthermore, when she extended herself from the Goose Creek reaches of her constituency into the new territory of the greater Moncks Corner voters - she found herself in uncharted waters. Voters there remember her days in the school board, some of her earlier controversies, and they know of her political protege currently serving on the Berkeley County School Board.

Bottom Line.

As I wish my luck to Campbell, I'm unbiasedly predicting that Hinson will lose the runoff election (not exactly going out on a limb at this point). With Hinson out, I do not expect as many Republican crossover's for West as some have predicted. I say this because I believe in cases of primaries like this - people who vote for newcomers over experienced office holders like Hinson are not necessarily voting FOR newcomers, but rather voting against the old guard and their baggage. This is to say - I am sure there are Republicans in the district saying "If it comes down to Hinson and almost any Democrat in the fall, I'll vote for the Democrat." And, as I said, I don't think this scenario will come to fruition. Furthermore, if the figures posted at Shotpolitics are correct - Hinson will be very vulnerable when she runs for re-election to House Seat 92. If she does not recover quickly within her own district - this could spell the end of her future political ambition.

Campbell vs. West for the Senate seat will make for an interesting fall. It pits a fresh-faced Republican in a traditionally Republican district against an experienced Democrat with strong and historic ties to the Moncks Corner community. I think the race will come down to the local issues - controlled growth, the immediate local economy and job market, and, yes, education. Both candidates are going to be forced to dance across a tight rope that will likely be the key issue - County Growth and the need for new roads, schools, etc to support that growth VS. the financial burden on the taxpayer and local budget that the growth is creating. I believe a realistic vision and pledge for support from the Statehouse regarding this question will go far in the final count. As for who I will support in that race, time will tell.