So how vulnerable is Senator Lindsey Graham? I'd have to say that Graham needs to, at least, put on some sort of floatation device. When he tests the water for his upcoming re-election bid, if he's not careful, the water could be deeper than he expects.
Are the numbers there to bring Graham down? In the 2002 US Senate race, Graham only beat Democratic challenger, Alex Sanders, by a 54% to 45% swing. That's pretty close. Yes, the Governor's race between Mark Sanford and Jim Hodges that day was even closer - and Sanford still managed to pull out a good win in his next election against Tommy Moore. Sanford, however, didn't seem to have the problems that Graham may have now.
It doesn't look like Thomas Ravenel is going to be a threat. But with the rising star out of the way, opportunism will set in. I live in US Congressional District 1 - but Saturday I received a letter from the Congressman from District Three. Gresham Barrett sent a survey on Illegal Immigration to voters in my district. Questions included: Gresham Barrett believes in passing legislation establishing English as our national language and unifying Cultural Force. AND Gresham Barrett believes that we must secure our borders first and foremost. (Check I agree with Gresham or I disagree with Gresham.) I appreciate Barrett's reach across the Congressional District lines, but it causes me to wonder. Why is he trying to get my attention? Is he considering a run at the Senate? I simply don't know. But, given the timing and nature of his mailing - I'm forced to wonder. As damaging as things like this could be for Graham, the rumors may be worse.
Graham is likely hearing the same rumors that I am. Rumors that the state-party chairman of Graham's own Republican Party is not only looking for someone to run against him, but is considering making the run himself. In Greenville, there is a running joke about a local radio personality, with a strong conservative following - running against Graham. Of course, it's just a joke, but it's the type of under minding that Graham simply can't afford in the upstate. Going back to the numbers, Graham needs Greenville if he is, in fact, challenged. At this point, these are all likely just rumors and talk, but they illustrate a point: there are serious grumblings that could mean trouble for Graham.
Is immigration really a big deal?
How ever you feel, you can't deny that the Immigration Bill is a hot topic. Furthermore, it's having it's own hand in elections. . . already. Immigration was one of two factors in a special election for a US House of Representatives seat in Georgia this last week. There, ALL ten candidates were set against the immigration reform proposals from the White House. The district there has been categorized as red, red, and more red. My point here - people see it as a big deal politically. These Georgia candidates, Republicans and Democrats alike, didn't buck the traditional conservative's skepticism about the issue.
Obviously, these Georgia candidates believed it was going to be key in their race. I think the immigration issue could be equally important here, across the Savannah River, in Graham's backyard. Is the immigration dispute going to be a deal breaker for Lindsey Graham? Maybe. Maybe not. Faulkner said that people don't seem to forget much longer than they remember. The question is: will it be forgotten?
According to The State: Graham doesn't seem to be overly concerned about a challenge. At this point, with no definite challengers and the war chest The State mentions - I don't blame Graham for being confident at all. With over a year until his race - I think Graham can likely recover - but he needs to do it quickly before things get out of control.
The real loser is Graham's buddy John McCain. McCain has a race in South Carolina that is coming up fast. If McCain can even make it to the South Carolina primary, his showing there could buy him some time or break him. McCain, with his recent setbacks, desperately needs Lindsey Graham's most potent support. The immigration bill might not have killed Lindsey Graham, but it might have driven the last nail in the coffin for John McCain.
Meanwhile, the debate leaves Senator Jim DeMint smelling like a rose.
Monday, July 2, 2007
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3 comments:
I'm still not sure exactly what Demint thinks he's doing by not enacting any sort of immigration reform... does he think there will be less problems with immigration if things stay as they are? And if we deport 12 million people, how does he expect our 6 million unemployed people (with very diverse job skills) to fill 9 or 10 million mostly menial but essential jobs? I, for one, am not really a fan of economic collapse.
I agree with your take on the nature of the problem - and the "kick every illegal out now" response has SERIOUS economic impacts.
DeMint comes out of the debate looking good. But, as a nation - we need more emphasis on getting the right answers - than getting the right press. I'm not accusing DeMint of that mentality, but it does exist in the halls of Congress.
The rumor I'd heard was that Barrett was eyeing running for Governor in 2010 when it's an open seat.
Even though I expect Henry McMaster will be the prohibitive favorite should he enter that race, Barrett, with his national-level fundraising connections and polished political resume, could be one of the few who could make the race competitive.
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